Malcolm Turnbull Is Leaving Parliament, And That's Nowhere Near As Important As You Think

Our most recent ex-PM Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed that he’s leaving parliament and heading to the non-political world, where he will doubtlessly follow the example of such stellar post-political statesmen as Malcolm Fraser and Dr John Hewson in going to the media and authoritatively saying things which were at complete odds with what they said and did when they actually led the Liberal Party.

Now, on the face of it you’d think “b-b-but the government only have a one seat majority, as Turnbull himself kept saying, so that means that this automatically triggers an election because WE HAVE NO GOVERNMENT THERE IS NO LAW EVERYONE LET THE PURGE COMMENCE!”

But before you ransack your garage for sharpened gardening implements, be advised that nah, it doesn’t work that way.

First up, the Morrison government have actually lost two MPs for time being: Turnbull, and Nationals MP Kevin Hogan, who has moved to the crossbench to sit as an “independent National”.

He was one of the three to threaten this outcome and the only one to follow through because last week was a different time, man.

So technically Morrison has 74 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives, which is not a majority. But that’s OK, because…

UNEXPECTEDLY WRONG ASSUMPTION #1: You need an absolute majority in order to govern

You don’t.

It’s tricky to govern without one because people will question your legitimacy, but then again the Australia government that passed the most legislation per day was the minority Labor government of Julia Gillard.

How did she manage that feat? By successfully negotiating with independents on the crossbench to ensure supply (i.e.: legislation on taxation and government spending, so the functions of government can be performed) and confidence (i.e.: won’t support a No Confidence motion).

And while the Coalition have only 74 seats, that means they need support from enough of the six cross benchers to continue to govern.

The current lower house crossbench contains the aforementioned Hogan, Adam Bandt of the Greens, Bob Katter of Katter’s Australia Party, Rebekha Sharkie of Centre Alliance, and two independents: Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie.

Hogan has indicated he’ll support Morrison, Bandt and Wilkie have made clear they won’t, McGowan has said her previous support no longer applies until it’s renegotiated with Morrison, Sharkie has guaranteed supply but not confidence, and Katter… god, who’d put money on Katter doing or saying anything that makes a lick of sense?

But with 75 votes (including the deciding vote of speaker Tony Smith) the government could see off a No Confidence motion, even if Labor and all the other cross benchers voted in favour.

Even that wouldn’t actually force an election: it would force Morrison to explain to the Governor General how he planned to successfully govern in that environment. Which brings us to…

UNEXPECTEDLY WRONG ASSUMPTION #2: The Governor General could totally call an election on Morrison

Now, it’s not entirely clear that the GG couldn’t call an election if they decided it was necessary – that open question is why the 1975 Constitutional Crisis is still unsettled – but what is definitely true is that it would break with convention and set another crisis in train.

See, the GG doesn’t have constitutional superpowers to just call an election because he or she is sick of all this endless dicking around. Sir Peter Cosgrove, our current GG, acts according to the counsel offered by his chief advisor – which is the PM. So unless Morrison says “you know what? I think an election is the way to go!” then Cosgrove has limited options even if he wanted to drop an election-bomb.

In other words: as long as Scott Morrison can guarantee supply and see off a No Confidence vote in the lower house, it’s incredibly unlikely that the GG would step in.

And while we’re here…

UNEXPECTEDLY WRONG ASSUMPTION #3: Turnbull’s resignation means there’ll be a by election in Wentworth any old second now.

Oddly enough, there’s no clear guidelines about when a by election needs to be called after an MP resigns, and there’s plenty of precedent for not calling one if the federal election is so close that such a by election would be an expensive and wasteful inconvenience.

It’s not ideal to leave a seat empty for nine months, sure, but any immediate by election would be seen as a referendum on Morrison’s leadership – and the current disastrous polling gives Scozza a clear incentive to leave it be for a bit. Wentworth’s a safe Liberal seat, so he’d gain nothing by retaining it and look like a dead duck if it was even slightly close. Expect it to remain on hold.

That’s despite reports of jockeying by local Liberals for preselection in the seat, including current City of Sydney councillor Christine Forster. And sure, given the events of the last week, why wouldn’t Wentworth rush to embrace the sister of Tony Abbott? It just makes perfect sense!

One thing we can take from it is that if Morrison did unexpectedly announce one then we could assume that the federal election will be as late as can possibly be held – which is Sat 18 May, incidentally – but that’s pretty much a given regardless, given the state of the polls.

So, to recap: Turnbull leaving parliament doesn’t mean that things suddenly get unmanageable for the new government, or that the Governor General can step in, or even that Wentworth needs a new MP in the immediate future.

Provided that Morrison can reunite his splintered party, heal the rift in the Coalition partners and successfully negotiate with crossbenchers in both the House of Reps and the Senate through their variety of demands  he should… I mean, he could probably… Depending on how…

You know what? It’s probably more realistic just to call an election.