The news of the White Island (or Whakaari) volcanic eruption in New Zealand was an unexpected shock. When the eruption happened, there were tourists all around the island, including a people hiking around the rim and inside the crater. It seemed to come out of nowhere, so how does a volcano just erupt like that without anyone seeing it coming?
I’d assumed there would be earthquakes and rumblings, and other definitive signs that an eruption was absolutely going to happen. It turns out it isn’t that simple.
GeoNet is a New Zealand based website letting people know about geological hazards like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Less than a week ago, they put out a Volcanic Alert Bulletin about the White Island volcano, saying that there was “moderate volcanic unrest” in the area and that “observations and data to date suggest that the volcano may be entering a period where eruptive activity is more likely than normal.”
They also pointed out though, that “while the activity is contained to the far side of the lake, the current level of activity does not pose a direct hazard to visitors.”
The last line of the alert mentions that despite this, an eruption is possible, and that “these eruptions can occur with little or no warning.”
The fact that even experts couldn’t definitively see this eruption coming is a scary reminder of just how unpredictable volcanoes and other natural disasters can be.
On the scale of eruptions, this one was relatively minor. It’s possible that this was a phreatic eruption, where there wasn’t even any magma involved and everything that volcano spat out was steam and ash. We’ll know more in the coming days.
Volcanic eruptions can be devastating. Think Pompeii, Krakatoa, or Mount Pelée. If we were to go to the most extreme end of the eruption scale, an eruption from a supervolcano like the one in Yellowstone could kill up to 90,000 people.
Sadly, five people have lost their lives in the White Island eruption and another eight are missing, presumed dead. Those numbers may rise yet.
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