While the government has been more or less decided – it’s a Coalition government, just the size remains in question – the senate is looking like being less than entirely great.
And things could get a little bit awkward for the government. Specifically, from the Centre Alliance.
Glad you asked, Mean Girls gif!
The Centre Alliance used to be the Nick Xenophon Team and were elevated to the senate during that strange false dawn that was the 2016 election when South Australia went nuts for the minor party and then its titular head quit for a doomed state politics run.
The party didn’t come within cooee of a senate quota this time around. Which means that their two existing senators – Stirling Griff and Rex Patrick – have nothing to lose by standing on principle.
Or, to put it in more vulgar terms, their only hope of clawing their spots back in 2021 is by swinging their legislative wangs around, and they’ve clearly unzipped in anticipation.
Thank you, you’re right: that WAS a strong visual metaphor!
For example: refusing to pass the upper-income tax cuts which Morrison promised before calling the election (which One Nation have also insisted they won’t pass).
For example: refusing the government’s model of an Integrity Commission unless it has sufficient powers of investigation.
In other words, parliament hasn’t even returned, the final seat tally isn’t in as yet, and already Morrison’s having to manage expectations for two key pieces of legislation. That’s… that’s a bad start.
And this is going to be what the senate looks like until the next election.
See you in 2021, gif!
At the time of writing three seats were yet to be confirmed, but it’s almost certain that the Coalition will have a total of 34 seats, Labor will have 27 and the Greens have held all nine of their seats.
And here’s where it gets tricky for the government. There are 76 seats in the senate and for legislation to pass the government needs a majority of votes – so a minimum of 39 votes.
So: if Labor and the Greens oppose something, the Coalition need five votes to pass it. And that can come from One Nation (2 seats), the Australian Conservatives (1 seat), and/or Jacqui Lambie… plus the two Centre Alliance senators.
Without them, they can’t get a damn thing through parliament. And Lambie’s a bit of a wild card too.
Foreshadowing.
And if the Centre Alliance were at all tempted by the idea of swapping to the Liberals, they have the example of their South Australian colleague Lucy Gichui.
She was accidentally elevated to the senate for Family First when Bob Day was deemed ineligible, subsequently jumped ship for the Libs, and was rewarded for helping shore up their vote by being punished with an unwinnable spot on the ballot at this election.
So yeah. It’s beginning to feel like a repeat of 2016. And please Jesus, does this mean we have to go through 21 Pilots again?