It’s super easy to say that politicians just aren’t inspiring today’s voting public, but that doesn’t mean it’s not incorrect. For exhibit A, have a look at our just-complete federal election.
First up, it’s worth noting that the headlines about record numbers of people – especially young people – not voting aren’t quite as apocalyptic as they appear.
It’s more an effect of population growth and post-same sex marriage voter enrolment than it is of people opting out – there are more voters in total, and thus there is a higher number of them not voting.
Turns out you do, young person!
But let’s have a look at what happened.
In the 2016 election Malcolm Turnbull scraped over the line with 76 seats to Labor’s 69 (in the 150-seat lower house), with five independents.
Conversely, in the 2019 election Scott Morrison triumphantly achieved a resounding victory with… um, 77 seats to Labor’s 68 (in the now-151 seat upper house), with six independents. In other words, barely anything changed.
Only a handful of seats changed hands at all, and the government still only has a one seat majority. If a Coalition MP follows the example of Julia Banks and quits, we’re back to a minority government.
Well, there are fewer Tony Abbotts in parliament now, I guess?
And just like most of the pre-election predictions, the vast majority of the post-election analysis seem to be straight up wrong.
If the election was about protecting franking credits, why did wealthy city electorates disproportionately vote Labor and independent? If it was about wage stagnation, why did poor electorates vote Coalition? If it was about coal mining, why did Labor lose seats in Tasmania instead of Queensland, and why did the Greens do so well there?
The one thing which is definitely true is that the Coalition and Labor primary votes went down, as they have done at all recent elections, and the parties that did well were the progressive Greens (whose vote jumped nationally) and the right-wing One Nation/United Australia (whose vote jumped in Queensland).
So what’s the lesson here? It seems to me that it’s that most Australians just don’t care anymore, and that those who do have given up on the major parties.
And if that’s the case… hoo boy, get ready for a lot more political argy-bargy – you know, the stuff that’s putting Australians off politics already – bceause governing by consensus is going to be a tricky old thing.