One of the questions that was most often expressed during the recent Liberal party leadership clusterfreak was “why isn’t Foreign Minister and deputy leader of the party Julie Bishop being discussed as a leadership contender?”
This question was normally accompanied by points about how she’d spent 11 years as deputy under multiple leaders – Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, and Malcolm Turnbull again – and had the benefit of being very popular with voters, holding a very safe seat in WA’s division of Curtin, and that people actually knew who she is
Although that’s at least in party because high profile women in the Liberal party are… shall we say, rare? We shall.
Detractors pointed out that if the party were selecting a leader based on electability they’d probably stay with the popular fellow who was currently PM and not bother having the spill at all.
And this was borne out in today’s Newspoll which showed the new government of Scott Morrison had slumped to a staggering 12 points behind Labor in two party preferred terms, while Labor leader Bill Shorten is now the nation’s preferred prime minister.
Anyone expecting the traditional new-leader bump, be alerted that your optimism was not rewarded.
Speaking of things not being rewarded, neither was Bishop’s loyalty and years of service. And this was made clear on Sunday when Barrie Cassidy revealed on the ABC’s Insiders evidence of an apparent plot against Bishop allegedly spearheaded by her WA colleague Mathias Cormann.
Either this is true, or it’s A CONSPIRACY WITHIN A CONSPIRACY! WE’RE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS HERE PEOPLE! ETCETERA!
You’d recall that there three candidates announced for Friday’s leadership tussle: challenger Peter Dutton, who brought the whole motion against keeping Turnbull as leader; treasurer Scott Morrison, largely seen as Turnbull’s appointed proxy in the battle, and Bishop.
The way these three cornered races work that the person with the least number of votes in round one is knocked out and the final vote is between the two with the highest votes.
So the apparent plan was to inflate Bishop’s vote, ensuring that Morrison would be eliminated first, and then have her crushed by Dutton.
This Burn Book plot was discussed on WhatsApp – the hitherto secure messaging app beloved by the former PM and largely used as a way for young people to sort out pingers before festivals – which was the medium of choice for the MPs scrambling to work out which plot they were meant to be conspiring within/against.
“Cormann rumoured to be putting some WA votes behind Julie Bishop in round one,” then-Infrastructure minister-now-Familes and Human Services minister Paul Fletcher reportedly wrote to the group, which is adorably named Friends For Stability and contains most of the folks generally regarded as moderates in the party.
“Be aware that this is a ruse trying to get her ahead of Morrison so he drops out and his votes go to Dutton. Despite our hearts tugging us to Julie we need to vote with our heads for Scott in round one.”
According to the screen grabs Christopher Pyne had let Bishop know that she was doomed.
And thus Bishop was eliminated in the first round, and the rest is weird history.
Bishop declined an invitation to return to the Foreign Affairs portfolio and is predicted to be considering leaving politics altogether at the next election. After all, the party just made clear she’s never going to be considered leadership material, so what’s she sticking around for?
And Bishop has every reason to be hurt. Not only was she collateral damage in a battle between two men who, to be polite, were not exactly her political equals, but the betrayal of her WA colleagues would also sting (although, it should be made clear, Cormann denies that he ever so much as considered such a plot).
The Liberals don’t have formal factions but it’s always been described as having the moderates, the conservatives, and WA – and if, as seems the case here, most WA members have put hard-right conservatism above state unity then Bishop has no hope of being invited into the clubhouse.
And sure, there’s a bit of talk of Bishop being our next Governor General – assuming she leaves politics at the next election and the likely new Shorten Labor government fancy dropping what would be an impressively bipartisan burn.
But in any case, the news that the leadership spill was even more of a schoolyard popularity contest than we had already assumed means that maybe Morrison should come up with some super-popular policies toot sweet.
Might we suggest a national cake made out of rainbows and smiles?
